Will Land Prices Increase by 50% One Year After HCMC Adjusts the Price Table?

The land price adjustment table issued by the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee, effective from October 31 to December 31, 2025, has quickly garnered attention from experts and real estate investors. According to general assessments, this adjustment will have profound impacts on the entire real estate market, particularly on suburban land segments. This pricing adjustment decision not only changes the market landscape but also affects various aspects such as project input costs, investment strategies, and investor psychology.

Addressing the Risk of Real Estate Agents Speculating on Prices

According to Le Hoang Chau, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA), the land price table is constructed based on the principle of approaching market value and has been adjusted in response to feedback from the business community and field experts. For instance, in Hoc Mon District, land prices have increased nearly 40 times compared to 2020, which is lower than the predicted increase in the earlier draft. This adjustment is intended to ensure fairness and minimize negative impacts on the public and enterprises, avoiding sudden surges in land prices.

However, Le Hoang Chau also warned that if not properly managed, the adjusted land price table could become a tool for exploitation by real estate agents. Inflated land prices may lead to the formation of a real estate bubble, harboring the risk of a financial crisis. Certain "speculators" and real estate agents could use this information to create artificial hype, causing panic among the public and investors. Therefore, timely and strong intervention from relevant authorities is necessary to closely monitor and control information, preventing the market from being manipulated by speculators.

Forecast of Land Price Increase by 50%

Real estate expert Tran Khanh Quang believes that adjusting the land price table is necessary given the market price fluctuations since 2020. According to the new price table, land prices in many areas have risen between 4 to 35 times compared to the old table. This reflects the growth rate of the market and the intense changes over recent years. It is estimated that land prices could increase by 20-30% within the next 3-6 months and may continue to rise by 30-50% after one year. These forecasts could significantly alter the investment strategies of both individuals and businesses.

The suburban land segment is the most affected by this adjustment, especially in areas like Hoc Mon and Binh Chanh. When land prices rise, row houses and commercial housing projects will also be impacted, as compensation costs increase. Rising land costs not only push up the prices of ongoing construction projects but also affect the sale prices of future projects. This will place greater financial pressure on developers, leading to adjusted sale prices, which directly affect the purchasing power of end buyers.

Moreover, rising land prices make the process of transferring land use rights more challenging. When land prices surge, compensation costs rise accordingly, delaying the progress of real estate projects and resulting in future housing supply shortages. This creates an unfavorable cycle, destabilizing the market as housing prices climb due to limited supply.

Impact on Investment Psychology and Strategies

The land price adjustment has significantly influenced investor psychology. Investors holding land tend to "hoard" in anticipation of price increases, especially those owning residential land. They are unwilling to sell immediately, opting instead to wait for the right time to maximize profit. Meanwhile, investors holding agricultural land face difficulties as the costs associated with changing land use purposes increase, leading to long-term uncertainty and confusion in their investment strategies.

On the other hand, investors in apartments seem to benefit from the land price adjustment. While suburban land and row houses are directly affected by rising land prices, the prices of apartments do not bear the same pressure. Current market transactions are primarily concentrated in apartments, and prices in the secondary market are also on the rise, especially for mid-range and high-end apartment projects, driven by limited supply and increasing demand.

However, the impact of the new land price table remains unclear in the short term. Some developers have taken advantage of this moment to raise prices for newly launched projects, aiming to anticipate future price increases. This places urgent demands on regulatory agencies to manage and supervise effectively, to prevent excessive price hikes that harm the interests of buyers, particularly first-time homebuyers.

Outcomes and Future Directions

In summary, the new land price adjustment in Ho Chi Minh City will have profound impacts on the real estate market, particularly the suburban land segment. Rapid price increases present new challenges for investors, requiring them to be more cautious in their investment and transaction decisions. Simultaneously, intervention by government regulatory agencies is crucial to maintain market stability and prevent hoarding and excessive speculation.

Investors and the public need transparent, accurate information to make reasonable investment decisions, avoiding unsustainable land price surges. Regulatory bodies must also strengthen market control and management measures to ensure fairness for all participants and sustainable market development. This not only helps the real estate market develop transparently and healthily but also protects the interests of homebuyers and legitimate investors.

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