Forecast for Ho Chi Minh City's Real Estate Market in 2025

Ho Chi Minh City's real estate market is gradually recovering, evidenced by the resurgence of many old projects along with the launch of new projects. The year 2025 promises to mark numerous positive transformations with nearly 10,000 new apartments expected to be launched, almost double the number in 2024. However, despite many positive signals, the market cannot yet expect a robust recovery in the short term, as it still faces significant challenges, including legal procedures and macroeconomic stability.

According to CBRE Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh City is expected to add another 3,000 new apartment units for sale in the fourth quarter of 2024, raising the total number of new units for the entire year to approximately 5,000 units. However, most large-scale projects have postponed their sales to 2025, leading to a decline in supply this year. This is attributed to difficulties in completing legal procedures and securing financing for project development. At the same time, some older projects may return after legal hurdles are resolved, and they are expected to officially launch sales next year. These projects could contribute a significant supply to the market and help improve investor confidence.

The landed property market in Ho Chi Minh City has also seen an increase in supply, with more than 300 new units expected to be launched in the fourth quarter, pushing the total number of newly launched low-rise houses this year to nearly 600 units, significantly up from only 40 units in 2023. Most of the new supply comes from projects in the fringe areas of the Eastern and Western regions, which helps reduce prices compared to the overall market. Projects in these fringe areas often have more affordable prices, aimed at attracting homebuyers with actual demand and small-scale investors, providing momentum for sustainable market development.

According to Ms. Duong Thuy Dung, Managing Director of CBRE Vietnam, projects that are being relaunched after years of halted progress are a positive sign, contributing to bolstering the confidence of homebuyers and investors. These projects not only add supply to the market but also reflect improvements in the legal and economic environment, enhancing the potential to attract investment capital. A notable trend is the increasing interest in neighboring markets such as Binh Duong and Long An, where numerous housing projects are being developed. The development of neighboring areas helps ease pressure on the inner-city market and creates an expanded urban network, supporting balanced and sustainable development.

Trang Le, Director of Advisory and Research at JLL Vietnam, noted that housing demand in 2025 will focus on actual occupancy needs, particularly in the lower price segments with transparent legal status. Homebuyers are increasingly concerned about the transparency and legal safety of projects, thus developers need to ensure full permits and necessary legal procedures. Although selling prices remain high, promotional policies related to flexible payment, discounts for quick payments will continue to be emphasized to stimulate buyer demand. This is especially important in the context where the market is still in a recovery phase and investor confidence has not yet fully stabilized.

Projects that were relaunched in the third quarter of 2024, such as D-Homme, D-Aqua, and Lavida Plus, all recorded a price increase of 10% to 30% compared to previous periods, demonstrating a strong recovery in the value of real estate assets in the region. This could indicate that there is still substantial demand for high-quality real estate products, especially when these projects are invested in improving infrastructure and internal amenities. Additionally, other projects like Gem Riverside and The Forest Gem are also preparing for a relaunch, marking positive progress in resolving legal issues. This resurgence could help accelerate the market recovery and increase liquidity for real estate assets.

The housing market in Ho Chi Minh City in 2025 is expected to see many positive changes, especially in the low-price segment and projects with clear legal status. The increase in supply in the low-price segment will help meet the actual needs of the majority of the population, particularly those with middle incomes. However, full recovery requires more time and multiple supporting factors from the government and developers, including fiscal policies that support homebuyers and measures to mitigate risks for developers in project implementation. Factors such as mortgage interest rates, access to capital, and improvements in transportation infrastructure will also play crucial roles in promoting market recovery.

Furthermore, the development of satellite areas such as Binh Duong and Long An also plays a significant role in reducing pressure on the Ho Chi Minh City real estate market. The expansion of satellite urban areas and the development of connectivity infrastructure between these areas and the city center help enhance accessibility and increase the value of real estate across the region. At the same time, local authorities and investors need to closely coordinate to ensure synchronized, sustainable development, and avoid potential real estate bubbles if supply exceeds demand.

In summary, 2025 will be a year full of promise but also contain many challenges for Ho Chi Minh City's real estate market. The increase in new supply, particularly in the low- and mid-price segments, along with government support measures and economic recovery, will be crucial factors in promoting stable market development. However, developers also need to exercise caution in managing risks and ensuring transparency and legal safety to build solid confidence from homebuyers and investors.