Draft Calculation of New Population in Ho Chi Minh City Apartment Buildings: Analysis of the Indicator of 3.5 People per Household

Ho Chi Minh City (TPHCM) recently published a new draft regarding the calculation of population density in apartment buildings. In this draft, two methods are proposed to determine the population count: a fixed value of 3.5 people per household or a calculation based on the area and room structure of the apartment. However, the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA) expressed concerns regarding the feasibility and rationality of using the fixed value of 3.5 people per household.

Two Methods for Population Calculation

The TPHCM draft outlines two schemes for calculating population density. The first method applies a fixed standard of 3.5 people per household, without considering the area or room structure. The second method determines the population count based on the apartment's area and room configuration. For example, apartments with an area ranging from 25 to 40 square meters are considered to house one person, from 40 to 60 square meters two people, and from 60 to 80 square meters three people.

HoREA supports the second method because it more accurately reflects the housing needs under modern urban conditions and is more feasible during project implementation. This method also allows investors and managing agencies to calculate the impact of projects on urban infrastructure more precisely, thereby ensuring the sustainability and balanced development of both technical and social infrastructure.

Example and Concerns

To illustrate the difference between the two methods, HoREA provided an example. Suppose a commercial residential project has a total usable floor area of 100,000 square meters. This area is divided into different types of apartments: 10% of the area is for apartments ranging from 25 to 40 square meters, 15% for apartments from 40 to 60 square meters, 25% for apartments from 60 to 80 square meters, and for larger apartments. Based on the method of area and room structure, the total population of the project would be approximately 3,930 people. However, if applying the fixed standard of 3.5 people per household, this figure would increase to 4,872 people, which is 19% higher than the first method.

This disparity raises deep concerns about the capacity of infrastructure. With increased population density, infrastructure such as road traffic systems, water supply, drainage systems, schools, and hospitals will face greater pressure. Particularly in a megacity like Ho Chi Minh City, where existing infrastructure is already under significant strain due to rapid urbanization, a sudden population increase could pose considerable challenges to sustainable urban development. Therefore, HoREA recommends that the city carefully consider prioritizing the method of calculating population density based on area and room structure.

Impact on Real Estate Projects and Infrastructure

The method of calculating population density based on area and room structure can solve many issues related to the mismatch between population density and the service capacity of infrastructure. However, HoREA also cautions that even this method cannot completely avoid its limitations. For instance, for small apartments with areas from 25 to 40 square meters or from 40 to 60 square meters, the reality may be that three to five people live in each household, especially in the case of low-income families or migrant workers. This suggests that the population estimation method needs to be adjusted flexibly to suit the actual living conditions of different population groups.

Moreover, determining fixed numbers of residents based on apartment area may not meet the diversity of urban residents. Migrant workers and low-income individuals often choose to live in cramped apartments to reduce living costs, while high-income individuals may reside in larger apartments but with very few occupants. Thus, rigidly applying area standards may lead to various issues in urban management and population distribution.

Recommendations for Better Urban Planning

Given the current legal and practical context, HoREA supports the Department of Construction's proposal to calculate population density based on the apartment's area and room layout. This is seen as an important step in improving urban planning quality, helping managing agencies and investors to develop projects on a more reasonable basis. HoREA also suggests that the Ho Chi Minh City government cooperate with relevant agencies to establish more realistic standards for determining population size, particularly in the city's hotspot development areas.

Additionally, the city needs to focus on zoning adjustments to ensure that newly developed areas can meet the needs of population growth. These adjustments must be synchronized with the development of technical and social infrastructure to ensure that new projects do not put excessive pressure on existing infrastructure. HoREA also recommends that the city conduct research and forecasts on future housing needs and population distribution, thereby establishing appropriate development plans.

To achieve these goals, close cooperation is required between state management agencies, investors, and other stakeholders. Urban development policies should be meticulously planned to ensure that the quality of life of residents is not negatively affected by economic development and population growth. At the same time, priority should be given to investing in public facilities such as schools, hospitals, public transport, and other social services to meet the needs of residents.

Conclusion

The debate regarding the population calculation method in Ho Chi Minh City highlights the challenge of balancing rapid urbanization with the need for sustainable infrastructure development. The method of calculating population density based on apartment area and room layout, with its flexibility and realism, is a necessary solution to ensure that future residential projects do not strain urban infrastructure and create good living conditions for residents.

Establishing a scientifically sound and reasonable urban population policy will help investors and urban planners have a solid foundation in project development while ensuring that urban areas in Ho Chi Minh City can continue to develop sustainably. This requires continuous cooperation and effort between local governments and real estate developers to create a peaceful, modern, and livable urban environment. The active participation of organizations such as HoREA plays a crucial role in addressing complex issues related to urbanization and lays the groundwork for Ho Chi Minh City to move towards a more balanced and sustainable future.