Analysis of Ho Chi Minh City's Real Estate Supply in Q2 2025

Recovery Trends and Supply Expansion

Ho Chi Minh City's real estate market is undergoing a significant transformation in Q2 2025, with numerous new projects and large-scale development plans being introduced. The increase in supply not only reflects a recovery trend following a period of stagnation but also demonstrates developers' strategic adjustments to the current market environment.

Impact of Development Strategies

Last weekend, Gamuda Land hosted a sales kick-off event, attracting over 1,500 agents from 35 real estate distribution agencies. The event was a prelude to the sales launch of the Diamond Centery zone in Celadon City (Tan Phu District), featuring 746 apartments. The first batch of 200 units will be priced from VND 69 million per square meter. This move indicates that developers are adopting a phased sales strategy to manage liquidity and respond flexibly to market demand.

In the southern region, Quốc Cường Gia Lai launched Phase 3 of Lavida Plus (District 7), comprising 150 apartments with an average price of VND 55-60 million per square meter, a 10% increase from Q3 2024. A similar trend is observed in Khải Hoàn Prime (Nha Be), where prices have risen by approximately 15% year-over-year to VND 60-65 million per square meter. These price adjustments may be attributed to improved legal approvals, upgraded internal amenities, and construction progress.

Meanwhile, the eastern region of Ho Chi Minh City remains the most dynamic market. Sơn Kim Land plans to launch over 200 high-end apartments in The 9 Stellar project, with starting prices of VND 80 million per square meter. Thăng Long Real's Fiato Uptown, after multiple delays, is set to introduce 400 units at approximately VND 55 million per square meter. The Metro Star project in Thu Duc City is reopening for sales, with prices nearly 60% higher than the initial launch price, reflecting a significant shift in asset valuation in the area.

Market Outlook and Macro Influences

According to forecasts from JLL Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh City will see a total housing supply of approximately 12,000 units in 2025, with over 80% classified as high-end properties, priced above VND 80 million per square meter. Data from Avison Young Vietnam suggests that around 17 projects will enter the sales phase throughout the year, providing between 10,000 and 12,000 new apartments. Specifically, Q2 and Q3 may witness around 6,000 new units, with 90% falling into the high-end segment.

Trang Lê, General Director of JLL Vietnam, noted that market sentiment is recovering rapidly, prompting developers to accelerate their sales plans. However, developers remain cautious, opting for phased sales to ensure market absorption capacity. Additionally, financial policies have become more flexible, including lower interest rates and extended payment terms, offering more favorable conditions for buyers.

Despite positive signals, liquidity remains a challenge for high-end housing. According to data from Batdongsan.com.vn, homebuying demand is primarily concentrated around VND 3 billion per unit, while most new projects target mid-to-high-income buyers, with starting prices above VND 65 million per square meter. Therefore, developers need to devise more targeted market strategies, such as expanding mid-range product lines or offering more attractive financial support packages.

Mid-Term Outlook: Infrastructure and Policy Adjustments

2025 is expected to be a pivotal year for Ho Chi Minh City's real estate market, driven by improvements in the legal framework and infrastructure development. Major projects such as Metro Line 1 and the expansion of the Ho Chi Minh City - Long Thanh - Dau Giay Expressway, along with urban planning adjustments in central areas, will further boost market growth.

However, in the short term, supply will continue to face certain constraints, mainly due to ongoing legal procedures for new project approvals. Consequently, many existing projects are still awaiting legal clearance before officially launching. Against this backdrop, the supply-demand imbalance is likely to persist, particularly in the mid-range and affordable housing segments.

Conclusion

The increase in supply in Q2 2025 is a positive indicator for Ho Chi Minh City's real estate market, showing that developers are adapting their strategies to a recovering market. However, sustainable growth will require reasonable financial support policies and more flexible sales strategies. Additionally, improvements in the legal system and urban infrastructure development will play a crucial role in shaping market trends in the coming years.

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