Vietnam's 2024 GDP Growth Outlook: Strong Start in the 1st quarter, Full-Year Forecast to Reach 6.5%

Vietnam's 2024 GDP Growth Outlook: Strong Start in the 1st quarter, Full-Year Forecast to Reach 6.5%

In an optimistic growth scenario, the General Statistics Office anticipates this year's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could surge to 6.5%. The country's GDP in the first quarter of 2024 experienced a 5.66% increase, indicating a gradual economic recovery.

The first quarter of this year saw a 5.66% rise in GDP, marking the highest the 1st quarter growth since 2020. The statistical authority believes this outcome aligns well with economic activities in the initial three months of the year.

Although this growth rate has not matched the levels seen in the same periods of 2018 and 2019, it represents the collective efforts and determination of the government, state agencies, local authorities, businesses, and citizens towards economic restoration and development.

According to the scenario outlined in Government Resolution No. 01, the growth target for 2024 is set between 6%-6.5%. The first quarter witnessed growth rates of 5.2% and 5.6%, respectively. Thus, viewing the broader economic landscape, the1st quarter growth outcome of 5.66% closely aligns with the higher scenario (5.6%). However, there has been a shift in growth among different sectors.

Specifically, the industrial and construction sectors have outperformed the previous year, achieving the highest growth among the three sectors at 6.28% (with industry alone growing by 6.18%), significantly surpassing the high scenario target of 5.5% set in Resolution No. 01.

The agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and service sectors recorded growth rates of 2.98% and 6.12%, respectively, falling below the growth rates projected in both scenarios (3.0% for agriculture, forestry, and fisheries; 6.3% and 6.5% for industry and construction).

Hence, considering the economic developments in the first three months, it can be said that the industrial sector has performed better than expected. Conversely, the service sector has yet to make a significant breakthrough and contribute positively to growth as anticipated in the management scenario.

"However, given the current domestic and global economic context, a growth rate of 5.66% marks a positive start to Vietnam's economy in 2024," stated Ms. Nguyễn Thị Hương, Head of the General Statistics Office.

Discussing this year's economic growth, the representative from the General Statistics Office mentioned that most international organizations have lowered their global economic growth forecasts for 2024. Domestically, several challenges and adverse factors persist, such as inflation and declining consumer trends.

The General Statistics Office updated two growth scenarios according to Resolution No. 01: Scenario 01, projecting a 6% increase for 2024, with the 1st quarter growing by 5.66% and the last nine months of the year approximately by 6.12%, including a the second quarter growth of about 5.85%, the third quarter at about 6.22%, and the fourth quarter at about 6.28%.

In Scenario 02, projecting a 6.5% increase for 2024, the 1st quarter is expected to grow by about 5.66%; the last nine months by approximately 6.75%, with the second quarter growing by about 6.32%, the third quarter by about 6.79%, and the fourth quarter by about 7.08%.

To overcome challenges and promote economic growth, the General Statistics Office believes it is necessary to maintain macroeconomic stability and implement the government's policies effectively and flexibly in the remaining quarters, closely following the objectives and solutions set out in Resolution No. 01, and focusing on implementing multiple solutions across different sectors.

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